The Mormon Vote Is Quietly Shifting

Why Utah’s quiet rebellion might be a warning sign for the GOP

Newly released 2024 data from Harvard's Cooperative Election Study shows something striking: the LDS (Mormon) vote shifted +2 points toward Democrats compared to 2020.

That’s not earth-shattering on its own. But here's where it gets interesting:

📊 While the national electorate swung R +6, Mormon voters trended D +8.
That’s a 14-point divergence from the rest of the country.

---

A Long-Term Trend

Zoom out, and the shift becomes even more dramatic:

• 2004: Bush 80% — Kerry 19% (R +61)

• 2024: Trump 65% — Harris 32% (R +33)

That’s a D +28 point swing in the Mormon vote over 20 years.

And here's a fun fact that underscores just how real this is:
Utah was the only state where Kamala Harris outperformed Joe Biden’s 2020 vote share.

---

What Does It Mean?

This doesn’t mean Utah is about to flip. But it does signal that even deeply conservative religious groups, once considered unshakably Republican, are quietly re-evaluating their political alignment, especially as the GOP continues to embrace hard-right authoritarianism.

Among LDS voters, that shift may reflect discomfort with:

• Trump’s personal behavior and rhetoric

• Attacks on democratic norms and the rule of law

• The fusion of politics and religion in the MAGA movement

The fact that this shift is happening without much fanfare makes it all the more telling.

---

Not All the Religious Trends Are Positive

It’s important to keep the full picture in view:

• White evangelicals remain solidly MAGA, with 85% identifying as Republican or Republican-leaning in 2024 (a record high).

• White Catholics and mainline Protestants are trending more Republican, especially older voters.

• Hispanic Protestants are increasingly split, and are now a key swing group in places like Texas and Florida.

• And the far-right is actively cultivating Christian nationalist sentiment across multiple denominations.

So while we should welcome signs of moderation and disillusionment with extremism, the fight for the soul of American religion—and democracy—is far from over.

---

Bottom line?

Faith communities are not a monolith. The shift in Mormon voting patterns is a hopeful sign that some conservative religious voters are choosing principle over party. But there’s no room for complacency—because the same dynamics pushing some voters away from MAGA are radicalizing others further.

📊 [Graph credit: Harvard CES & Rugh CCES]